US mortgage rates fall for a third straight week to 7.18%. What it could mean for a refinance or extra payments
Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell to 7.18%, a third straight weekly fall. What it could mean for a refinance or extra payments, with worked numbers.
US mortgage rates fell for a third straight week, with Freddie Mac's 30-year average easing to 7.18% on 5 November from 7.24% a week earlier, its lowest since September.
The result
- 30-year fixed: 7.18%, down from 7.24% last week and 7.40% in mid-October. A year ago it was 6.22%.
- 15-year fixed: 6.57%, down from 6.60% last week. A year ago it was 5.50% (Freddie Mac, 5 November 2026).
"Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, improving the environment for prospective homebuyers against a backdrop of strong economic growth," said Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater.
Our week-ahead post called the US the line already moving the right way, and it has moved another 0.06 points.
What's behind it, and what analysts expect
The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.95% on 3 November to 4.90% on 4 November (US Treasury) after the sweep covered in our midterm post, and sat around 4.9% on Thursday (Trading Economics, 5 November 2026). Freddie Mac's survey averages the prior Thursday through Wednesday, so that move is only partly in this figure.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's 30-year rate fell to 7.3%, with rates at "their lowest level since September 2026", said chief economist Mike Fratantoni, and refinance applications rose 0.1% in the week ending 30 October (MBA via Calculated Risk, 4 November 2026).
In Bankrate's poll for 5 to 11 November, half the experts expected rates to fall, a quarter a rise and a quarter no change (Bankrate, 4 November 2026). Friday's jobs report is the next test, and markets still put a December Fed rise at about 83% (Trading Economics).
Does a lower rate cover a refinance's costs?
Freddie Mac's survey tracks purchase loans, so refinance quotes will differ. The free Refinance Calculator takes your balance, remaining term, current rate, closing costs and up to three new loans, then shows the new payment, the month the costs are covered and the net difference.
Take an illustrative USD 375,000 balance with 27 years left at 7.75%, a payment of USD 2,765, and USD 5,500 of closing costs:
| New rate | Payment (USD) | Monthly difference (USD) | Costs covered | Net over 27 years (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.18% | 2,623 | 142 less | Month 31 | 40,474 |
| 7.00% | 2,579 | 186 less | Month 24 | 54,783 |
| 6.75% | 2,519 | 247 less | Month 18 | 74,483 |
At 7.32%, the 22 October average, the costs took until month 41, so 0.14 points brings the break-even forward 10 months. Over seven years, the 7.18% row comes to USD 9,555 after costs. From a 7.40% loan, the costs take until month 80, so your starting rate matters.
What's 0.22 points worth as extra payments?
On an illustrative USD 400,000 loan over 30 years, the payment is USD 2,770 at 7.40% and USD 2,710 at 7.18%. A buyer who budgeted for the higher figure has about USD 60 a month spare. The free Overpayment calculator takes the loan, rate, term and a monthly extra, and shows the time and interest difference, here at 7.18% for the whole term:
| Extra each month (USD) | Monthly payment (USD) | Paid off | Interest difference (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 2,770 | 2 years 1 month sooner | 48,850 |
| 100 | 2,810 | 3 years 3 months sooner | 76,283 |
| 200 | 2,910 | 5 years 10 months sooner | 132,203 |
What's next this week
The US jobs report follows on Friday 6 November, and Stresst will cover it with the numbers worked through.
Run your own numbers in Stresst
The worked figures above came out of the Stresst calculators.
The Refinance Calculator and Overpayment are free. Premium adds tools such as the Mortgage Points Calculator and ARM vs Fixed Rate, plus PDF export on every calculator, and starts with a 7-day free trial.
Freddie Mac's next reading is due on Thursday 12 November, so it's a good moment to have your numbers ready. On iPhone, Stresst is in beta through Apple's TestFlight app.
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Know your numbers before you commit.
Sources
- Freddie Mac, "Primary Mortgage Market Survey", 5 November 2026. https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
- Freddie Mac via GlobeNewswire, "Mortgage Rates Decline for Third Consecutive Week to 7.18%", 5 November 2026. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/05/3396882/0/en/mortgage-rates-decline-for-third-consecutive-week-to-7-18.html
- US Department of the Treasury, "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates", 3 and 4 November 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202611
- Trading Economics, "US 10-Year Treasury Yield Up to 4.9%", 5 November 2026. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield/news/598668
- Mortgage Bankers Association via Calculated Risk, "Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey", 4 November 2026. https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mortgage-applications-decrease-in
- Bankrate, "Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for November 5 - 11, 2026", 4 November 2026. https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/rate-trends/
This article is general information only and is not financial, tax or legal advice.