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A big week for rates in the UK, US and Australia. What to watch, and how to know your numbers before each decision

The RBA, the US midterms and the Bank of England all land this week. What analysts expect, what to watch, and what a quarter point means for a mortgage.

Stresst Editorial6 min read
A big week for rates in the UK, US and Australia. What to watch, and how to know your numbers before each decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia, US voters and the Bank of England all have their say on borrowing costs between Tuesday 3 and Thursday 5 November 2026, and US jobs figures follow on Friday.

It's a busy four days, but each outcome comes down to a rate, and a rate turns into a monthly payment in seconds.

The week at a glance

  • Tuesday 3 November, Australia. The RBA announces its decision and its Statement on Monetary Policy. The cash rate is 4.60% after four rises this year (RBA), and money markets put the chance of a rise to 4.85% at about 79% (Newsquawk, 30 October 2026).
  • Tuesday 3 November, USA. Midterm elections for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats (Newsquawk).
  • Thursday 5 November, UK. The Bank of England announces its decision with the November Monetary Policy Report (Bank of England). Bank Rate is 3.75% (HomeOwners Alliance, 28 October 2026), and markets widely expect a rise to 4% (Dow Jones Newswires, 1 November 2026).
  • Thursday 5 November, USA. Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey.
  • Friday 6 November, USA. October payrolls, with a consensus of 55,000 new jobs (Newsquawk).

What to watch at the Bank of England

The decision itself is largely expected. In a Reuters poll of 63 economists in mid-October, 54 expected a quarter-point rise (HomeOwners Alliance, 28 October 2026).

The detail matters more. Watch the vote split, and whether members who voted to hold in September back the move. Watch the new forecasts and the press conference for how far the Bank thinks rates need to go. Markets price around four quarter-point rises by summer 2027, and some economists expect the Bank to push back on that. "There is a high bar for the BOE to deliver tightening in line with market pricing," said BNP Paribas's Dani Stoilova (Dow Jones Newswires, 1 November 2026).

If you're on a fixed rate, your payment stays the same until the deal ends, and lenders may already have priced a November rise into new fixes (HomeOwners Alliance).

What analysts say about the midterms

Prediction markets lean one way. Polymarket put the chance of Democrats winning the House at 94% and the Senate at 69% (Newsquawk, 30 October 2026).

For rates, analysts focus on what the result means for government borrowing, because that feeds into Treasury yields and, through them, mortgage rates.

  • A split Congress (Democratic House, Republican Senate) is Amundi's most likely case. It expects existing tax law to stay, big new packages to be hard to pass and fiscal deadlock to become the norm (Amundi Research, 21 October 2026).
  • A Democratic sweep is the outcome investors in Bloomberg's Markets Live Pulse survey linked to a bond rally, which would mean lower yields (Bloomberg, 26 October 2026).
  • A Republican hold of both chambers is, in Amundi's words, "the least priced and most dislocating scenario". A unified Congress could find it easier to extend tax cuts, and IG notes that fiscal expectations like these tend to show up in Treasury yields first (IG, 19 October 2026).

Housing is on voters' minds either way. Pew Research found 66% of US adults very concerned about housing costs, and NAR's Lawrence Yun has said "mortgage rates could be topping out" (Newsweek, 29 October 2026).

What a quarter point means in each market

The free Mortgage Payment calculator in Stresst takes a loan amount, an interest rate and a term, and shows the monthly repayment and total interest in the currency of the country you pick. These examples use illustrative loans.

MarketIllustrative loanRate moveMonthly repayment
UK (GBP)GBP 200,000 tracker, 25 years4.75% to 5.00%GBP 1,140 to GBP 1,169 (+GBP 29)
Australia (AUD)AUD 600,000 variable, 30 years6.60% to 6.85%AUD 3,832 to AUD 3,932 (+AUD 100)
USA (USD)USD 400,000 fixed, 30 years7.40% to 7.24%USD 2,770 to USD 2,726 (minus USD 44)

The US line is the one already moving the right way. Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell to 7.24% on 29 October, its lowest this month, from 7.40% on 8 October (Freddie Mac). On a USD 400,000 loan, the calculator puts that at USD 44 a month less and USD 15,670 less interest over 30 years. If yields eased further after the election and rates reached 6.99%, the payment would be USD 2,659, another USD 67 a month lower.

In the UK, the GBP 29 applies to trackers and variable rates, not to fixes.

Run your own numbers in Stresst

Every worked figure above came out of the Stresst app. Put in your own loan, rate and term, switch country, and you'll have your number for each decision in a couple of minutes.

Mortgage Payment is free, along with the Refinance Calculator (Remortgage Calculator in the UK), Overpayment, Total Purchase Costs and each market's stamp duty or property tax calculator. Premium adds tools such as UK Affordability, Australia Affordability, ARM vs Fixed Rate and the property investment tools, plus PDF export on every calculator, and starts with a 7-day free trial.

The RBA speaks on Tuesday and the Bank of England on Thursday, so this is the week to have your numbers ready. On iPhone, Stresst is in beta through Apple's TestFlight app.

Download Stresst free on Google Play

Join the Stresst iPhone beta on TestFlight

Know your numbers before you commit.

Sources

This article is general information only and is not financial, tax or legal advice.

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