Long-term numbers for long-term calculators.
Stresst's projections run over 10 years and more, so the reference rates are built from multi-decade official price indices — not this year's forecast. Near-term views from named forecasters are shown alongside as context, clearly attributed and separate.
Historical reference rates — not forecasts
The long-run rates below are derived from official published indices and describe what has happened historically — they are not a prediction of future performance. The near-term forecaster views are attributed third-party estimates, not Stresst's predictions. Neither is a guarantee. Property values can and do fall. This is not financial advice.
Three reference rates, one honest method
Assumes growth runs well below the market's long-run average for your whole projection — a deliberately careful planning assumption, not a prediction of decline.
The long-run annual growth rate from the market's main price index history — the full-period compound return, not a cherry-picked window or a recent average.
Reflects sustained strong-growth periods the market has genuinely delivered before — a real historical scenario, not an invented upper bound.
Stresst is not a research house
The long-run rates are arithmetic on official published indices — we read the index, we calculate the compound annual return over the full data window, and we round to the nearest whole percent. There is no proprietary model. The near-term forecaster views shown under each country belong to the named organisations who published them; Stresst is simply citing them as context, clearly dated and attributed.
What "annual rate" means here
Each figure is a flat annual percentage applied consistently across however many years the user is projecting — it is not a forecast for next year or any single specific year. Property markets do not move in a straight line. A market with a long-run average of, say, +4% will still have had individual years of decline and individual years well above that figure. Stresst is not predicting that growth will be positive in any given year, and is not predicting that it will be negative in any given year. The Cautious, Average, and Strong rates purely describe what has genuinely happened over multi-decade, full-market-cycle periods — in either direction — and nothing more.
Reviewed quarterly — manually, not automatically
All figures are reviewed against the latest published index data on a quarterly basis. This is deliberately not automated. Scrapers read headline numbers accurately most of the time, but frequently misinterpret methodology changes, rebasing events, or seasonal adjustment notes in the source publications. A person reading the methodology documentation catches those — a script cannot.
Long-run rates from official indices · forecaster views compiled July 2026 · next review October 2026
United Kingdom
ONS/Land Registry from 1995 · Nationwide back to 1952
Context
The UK's long-run average of around 4% masks wide swings — including flat or falling periods after 2008 and a sharp post-pandemic surge — which is exactly why the Cautious rate sits well below current forecaster consensus.
What tends to drive growth here
- Chronic undersupply of new homes relative to household formation — the structural driver of long-run price growth
- Bank of England base rate moves, which flow quickly into mortgage costs and buyer sentiment
- Significant regional divergence: London and the South East behave differently to the Midlands and the North
- Stamp duty thresholds and lending policy changes shifting demand in measurable, near-immediate ways
Data window reviewed
30-year window from ONS House Price Index and HM Land Registry data, covering the 1990s correction, the 2008 crash and recovery, and the 2020–2022 surge.
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
United States
FHFA from 1991 · Case-Shiller from 1987
Context
US national home prices have compounded at roughly 4% over the long term; the near-term forecaster consensus clusters well below that, reflecting affordability pressure and elevated mortgage rates.
What tends to drive growth here
- Federal Reserve rate policy flowing through directly to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate — the dominant US lending benchmark
- Population migration from high-cost coastal metros to lower-cost Sun Belt cities
- The 'locked-in' effect: homeowners with sub-3% fixed rates reluctant to sell, keeping inventory historically tight
- Local zoning and planning restrictions constraining new supply in core metros despite sustained demand
Data window reviewed
30-year window from FHFA and Case-Shiller national indices, covering the 2008–2012 crash (approximately −27% nationally) and the 2020–2022 acceleration.
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
Australia
CoreLogic from 1980 · ABS from 2003
Context
Australia's long-run average is among the strongest of any developed market; current forecasters span a wide range — from flat in some capitals to double-digit in others — reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus.
What tends to drive growth here
- Strong net migration into Sydney and Melbourne sustaining demand at the entry and mid-market levels
- Supply constrained by planning approval timelines — new dwellings take materially longer to reach market than in comparable economies
- RBA rate moves flow quickly into variable mortgage costs, given the high prevalence of variable-rate loans
- First home buyer incentive schemes and state-level stamp duty concessions periodically inject concentrated demand at the entry level
Data window reviewed
25-year window from CoreLogic Home Value Index and ABS Residential Property Price Indexes (catalogue 6416.0).
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
Spain
INE IPV from 2007 · Banco de España
Context
Spain's history spans both a severe multi-year downturn and today's bank-forecast boom — that width is exactly why the Cautious rate sits deliberately low against the current forecasts.
What tends to drive growth here
- Coastal and tourist-area demand from Northern European buyers — highly sensitive to eurozone economic conditions
- Post-2014 recovery concentrated in Barcelona, Madrid, and coastal Alicante/Málaga; secondary cities recovered much more slowly
- High residential vacancy in certain regions creates significant divergence from the headline national index
- Non-resident mortgage caps reduce speculative international demand relative to comparable markets
Data window reviewed
INE IPV from 2007, spanning the full 2008–2014 correction (approximately −37% nationally) and the subsequent recovery.
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
Singapore
URA PPI from 1998
Context
Singapore's market is tightly managed by government cooling measures; multiple forecasters cluster in a narrow band for 2026, consistent with the market's long-run pattern of calibrated, low-volatility growth.
What tends to drive growth here
- Government cooling measures — stamp duty rates, loan-to-value rules, and servicing ratio caps — directly calibrate price growth and are adjusted when the market overheats
- HDB resale and private residential markets track separately; each segment requires independent analysis
- Labour market conditions and the international professional workforce shape demand for private condominiums
- Land supply is genuinely constrained by geography, but government land release policy actively manages the development pipeline
Data window reviewed
25-year window from the URA Private Residential Property Price Index.
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
Malaysia
NAPIC/JPPH from 2000
Context
Malaysian property has delivered modest long-run appreciation; the single near-term forecast available currently sits within the long-run Average range.
What tends to drive growth here
- Significant high-rise oversupply in Klang Valley and Johor Bahru has suppressed returns in those segments over the past decade
- KL city centre and established suburban markets command premiums driven by expatriate and professional demand
- Overnight Policy Rate moves flow through to variable mortgage costs — the majority of Malaysian home loans are variable rate
- Foreign buyer restrictions and minimum purchase thresholds (which vary by state) limit international demand in most segments
Data window reviewed
20-year window from the NAPIC Malaysian House Price Index published by the Valuation and Property Services Department (JPPH).
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
Single forecaster currently cited — further sources being added at the next quarterly review.
Hong Kong
RVD from 1993
Context
Hong Kong's long-run index spans multiple sharp corrections and recoveries; one near-term forecaster currently suggests a 2026 recovery following a prolonged downturn.
What tends to drive growth here
- Net emigration outflows (particularly post-2020) have materially reduced owner-occupier demand in the private residential market
- Interest rates linked to the US dollar peg — when the Fed raises rates, Hong Kong mortgage costs rise in lockstep
- Stamp duty policy has directly calibrated transaction volumes; policy changes produce near-immediate market effects
- Developable land is structurally scarce — mountainous terrain and country parks limit the buildable footprint to a small fraction of the territory
Data window reviewed
30-year window from the Rating and Valuation Department Private Domestic Price Index, covering the 1997–2003 correction and the 2021–2024 correction.
What forecasters say right now · near-term context only
Single forecaster currently cited — further sources being added at the next quarterly review.
Take a different view? Good.
Professional forecasters disagree — significantly. For Australia alone, the 2026 forecasts on this page span from capitals flat overall (Westpac) to +10% nationally (SQM Research base case), with Perth cited as high as +16%. That isn't a data quality problem. It reflects genuine uncertainty about where any market goes next.
That is why every calculator in Stresst accepts a fully custom growth rate. The Cautious, Average, and Strong presets are grounded starting points — use them, ignore them, or replace them entirely with your own assumption. The model runs on whatever number you give it.
Common questions
Why three numbers instead of one?
A single figure implies a precision the data does not support. Property markets cycle — the same market that averaged 4% per year over 30 years has delivered individual years of decline and individual years well above that figure. The three rates — Cautious, Average, and Strong — let you run the same model across a realistic range of outcomes rather than anchoring to one number that may be the long-run norm but is rarely what actually happens in any given year.
Why do some countries show similar-looking numbers despite different histories?
The rates are independently calibrated for each market — not benchmarked against each other. Where two countries happen to share the same numeral, the underlying scenarios are different: each figure reflects that country's own historical record. Coinciding numbers are coincidence, not a shared template.
Why quarterly updates, and why manual rather than automated?
Automated scrapers read headline figures accurately most of the time, but frequently misinterpret methodology changes, index rebasing events, or seasonal adjustment footnotes in the source publications. A quarterly manual review catches those edge cases — for example, when an index provider changes its base year or switches between methodologies. A scraper cannot make that distinction; a person reading the methodology documentation can. The forecaster views on this page were compiled July 2026; the next review is scheduled for October 2026.
Can I enter a custom growth rate instead of using the presets?
Yes. Every calculator in Stresst that takes growth rate as an input accepts a fully custom figure. The Cautious, Average, and Strong presets are starting points anchored in historically grounded numbers. You can override any of them with whatever assumption fits your own view of the market.
Important Legal Notice
The long-run Cautious, Average, and Strong rates are derived from official published price indices and are historical reference points — they are not forecasts, projections, or guarantees of future performance. The near-term forecaster views shown on this page are attributed third-party estimates published by the named organisations; they are not Stresst's predictions or recommendations. Neither the long-run rates nor the near-term views constitute a guarantee of any outcome.
Forecasts are revised frequently and can change materially. Property values can and do fall — including over extended periods. Past performance does not predict future performance. Stresst accepts no liability for any investment decisions made based on this information. This is not financial advice.
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