Bank Rate rises to 4% on an 8 to 1 vote, and 87% of UK mortgages are fixed. What the decision means for your numbers
Bank Rate is now 4%, and fixed-rate payments stay the same until a deal ends. What the vote, forecasts and guidance mean, with worked Stresst numbers.
The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% on 5 November on an 8 to 1 vote, and with 87% of UK mortgages on fixed rates, most borrowers' payments stay the same until their deal ends (Bank of England; UK Finance via The Mirror, 5 November 2026).
What the Bank decided
Our week-ahead post said to watch the vote split, the forecasts and how far rates might go.
- The vote. Eight members backed 4% and Catherine Mann voted for 4.25% (Bank of England). In September it was 6 to 3 to hold (Mortgage Introducer).
- The forecasts. CPI inflation, 3.5% in September, is expected to reach around 5% by mid-2027 and then fall as the energy effect fades. GDP growth is expected to have picked up to 0.7% in the third quarter (Monetary Policy Report, 5 November 2026).
- How far. "Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path," the Bank said. Governor Andrew Bailey said the rise shouldn't be seen as "the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes", but that unless the Middle East conflict is resolved, "neither does it seem likely to be the last" (The Mirror). Alan Taylor wrote: "The next move could be up, down, or sideways" (Bank of England minutes).
Before the decision, Oxford Economics expected a further rise, to 4.25% in February 2027 (MoneyWeek). Pantheon's Rob Wood expects three rises by next April (The Mirror). Fixed rates follow swap rates, so they can move separately (Mortgage Introducer).
They already have this week: Nationwide, Barclays and Halifax all had sub-5% deals for bigger deposits after recent cuts (Mortgage Introducer, 4 November 2026). Moneyfacts' Rachel Springall said before the decision that if the Bank indicated a calmer path, fixed rates "could reduce slightly before the year is over" (Mortgage Introducer, 4 November 2026).
Who it touches today
Of 8.47 million UK mortgages, 510,000 are trackers, which move with Bank Rate, and 470,000 are on standard variable rates, where lenders decide. The average SVR was 7.13% on 1 November (The Mirror), and major lenders' SVR decisions were still to come when this was written.
If your fix ends soon
About 2.3 million fixed deals expire across 2027 (The Mirror). The free Remortgage Calculator takes your balance, term and current rate, plus each new deal's rate, length and costs, and shows the new payment, when the costs are covered and the net difference.
Take an illustrative GBP 200,000 repayment mortgage with 25 years left on the 7.13% average SVR, paying GBP 1,430 a month, with GBP 1,500 of switching costs (the app's starting figures). Here it is against Moneyfacts' average fixes (Mortgage Introducer, 4 November 2026):
| New rate | Monthly payment | Monthly difference | Costs covered | Net after costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.97% two-year average | GBP 1,285 | GBP 145 less | Month 8 | GBP 3,139 over two years |
| 6.00% five-year average | GBP 1,289 | GBP 142 less | Month 8 | GBP 9,758 over five years |
If you're on a tracker
An illustrative GBP 200,000 tracker over 25 years at Bank Rate plus 1 point moves from 4.75% to 5.00%, or GBP 1,140 to GBP 1,169 a month. That's the GBP 29 in our week-ahead table.
The free Periodic Overpayment calculator takes the loan, rate, term, amount and frequency. Here's GBP 2,000 a year at 5.00%, held for the whole term, paid two ways:
| Overpayment | Total overpaid | Time difference | Interest difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP 500 every 3 months | GBP 39,000 | 5 years 4 months sooner | GBP 36,371 |
| GBP 2,000 once a year | GBP 38,000 | 5 years 2 months sooner | GBP 35,135 |
What's next this week
Freddie Mac's weekly US mortgage rate survey lands later today and the US jobs report follows on Friday 6 November. Stresst will cover both.
Run your own numbers in Stresst
The worked figures above came out of the Stresst calculators.
The Remortgage Calculator and Periodic Overpayment are free. Premium adds tools such as UK Affordability and the Rate Break-Even Analyser, plus PDF export on every calculator, and starts with a 7-day free trial.
The Bank's next decision is on 17 December, so it's a good moment to have your numbers ready. On iPhone, Stresst is in beta through Apple's TestFlight app.
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Know your numbers before you commit.
Sources
- Bank of England, "Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, November 2026", 5 November 2026. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/november-2026
- Bank of England, "Monetary Policy Report, November 2026", 5 November 2026. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/november-2026
- The Mirror via AOL, "Interest rates raised by Bank of England for first time in 3 years", 5 November 2026. https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/interest-rates-raised-bank-england-120126000.html
- MoneyWeek, "Live: Bank of England raises interest rates", 5 November 2026. https://moneyweek.com/economy/news/live/uk-interest-rates-november-bank-of-england
- Mortgage Introducer, "RECAP: How the Bank of England voted to raise rates", 5 November 2026. https://mpamag.com/uk/mortgage-industry/market-trends/live-blog-boe-to-reveal-latest-rate-decision/596302
- Mortgage Introducer, "Mortgage rates hit three-year high as lenders reprice aggressively ahead of base rate rise", 4 November 2026. https://www.mpamag.com/uk/mortgage-types/residential/mortgage-rates-hit-three-year-high-as-lenders-reprice-aggressively-ahead-of-base-rate-rise/596193
- Mortgage Introducer, "Lender cuts signal confidence ahead of BoE rate decision, broker says", 4 November 2026. https://www.mpamag.com/uk/mortgage-industry/market-trends/lender-cuts-signal-confidence-ahead-of-boe-rate-decision-broker-says/596203
This article is general information only and is not financial, tax or legal advice.