The RBA lifts rates to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote and sees inflation back in range by late 2027. What it could mean for your repayments
The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85% on a 6-3 vote. What the new forecasts show, and what the rise could mean for your repayments.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 0.25 points to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November 2026, as markets expected, and its new forecasts show inflation back inside the 2 to 3% target range by late 2027 (RBA, 3 November 2026).
Our week-ahead post put a quarter point at about AUD 100 a month on an AUD 600,000 variable loan. Here's what the decision said, and what it could mean for your loan.
A 6-3 vote and no steer on the next move
Six board members voted for the rise, the fifth of 2026, and three preferred to hold at 4.60% (RBA). Governor Michele Bullock said the rise is "what's needed to get inflation down" (SBS News, 3 November 2026). She gave no guidance on the next move, said waiting for data is probably sensible, and said she doesn't see the economy cracking (investingLive, 3 November 2026). The statement signals no further rise: the Board "will be attentive to the data" (RBA).
| RBA forecast | Dec 2026 | Jun 2027 | Dec 2027 | Dec 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| Trimmed mean inflation | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Real wage growth | -1.0% | -0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
Source: RBA, Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026.
Wages move back ahead of prices during 2027, though unemployment is forecast to reach 4.9% by that December. The forecasts assume market pricing for the cash rate: 4.9% in June 2027, then 4.8% from December 2027. That's an assumption, not a promise, but it sits close to today's level.
Before the decision, NAB expected a pause, Westpac saw a growing February risk and ANZ a "material risk" of 5.10% (Savings.com.au, 30 October 2026). CBA, Westpac and NAB were forecasting cuts from around August 2027, ANZ from around November (SBS News). The RBA next decides on 8 December (ABC News, 3 November 2026).
What it could mean for your repayments
On an illustrative AUD 600,000 variable loan over 30 years, the free Mortgage Payment calculator in Stresst puts a move from 6.60% to 6.85% at AUD 3,832 to AUD 3,932 a month, about AUD 100 more.
The big four hadn't responded when this was written. All four passed on September's rise in full (Savings.com.au, 30 September 2026), and AMP's Shane Oliver expects the same again (ABC News).
What a different rate would do
The free Refinance Calculator shows what any rate you're quoted would do after the costs of switching. On the same loan at 6.85%, with an illustrative AUD 650 of costs and both rates held for three years, a rate of 6.60% would mean a repayment of AUD 3,832, AUD 100 a month less. The costs would be covered by month 6, with a possible net saving of AUD 3,869.
Lenders also test a new loan at a higher rate, a check Australia Affordability (Premium) runs at your rate plus 3%.
What extra repayments would do
The free Overpayment calculator takes your loan, rate, term and monthly overpayment and returns the time and interest difference, with one rate held for the full term.
On the same loan at 6.85%, AUD 100 extra a month would clear it 2 years 3 months sooner, with AUD 73,812 less interest. AUD 250 extra would bring that to 4 years 11 months and AUD 159,398.
What's next this week
Still to come: the US midterms, the Bank of England and Freddie Mac's rates on Thursday 5 November, and US jobs on Friday 6 November. Stresst will cover each as it lands.
Run your own numbers in Stresst
Every worked figure above came out of the Stresst app, and you can run your own in a couple of minutes.
Mortgage Payment, the Refinance Calculator and Overpayment are free. Premium adds tools such as Australia Affordability, Negative Gearing and the property investment tools, plus PDF export on every calculator, and starts with a 7-day free trial.
Lenders are setting their new rates now, so this is a good week to see where your loan stands. On iPhone, Stresst is in beta through Apple's TestFlight app.
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Know your numbers before you commit.
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia, "Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision", 3 November 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-30.html
- Reserve Bank of Australia, "Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026: Outlook", 3 November 2026. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/nov/outlook.html
- investingLive, "RBA's Bullock offers no guidance, says it is probably good to wait for data after hike", 3 November 2026. https://investinglive.com/central-banks/rba-s-bullock-offers-no-guidance-says-it-is-probably-good-to-wait-for-data-after-hike/
- SBS News, "RBA's November interest rates decision: Live updates", 3 November 2026. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/live-blog/rba-november-2026-interest-rates-decision-live/f6csn2n1w
- ABC News, "RBA has raised the cash rate again. Here's how it affects Australian households", 3 November 2026. https://abc.net.au/news/2026-11-03/what-november-cash-rate-hike-means-for-australians-money/107324538
- Savings.com.au, "Economists debate whether November rate hike will be the last", 30 October 2026. https://www.savings.com.au/news/economists-debate-whether-november-rate-hike-will-be-the-last
- Savings.com.au, "How the big four banks reacted to fourth RBA rate hike", updated 30 September 2026. https://www.savings.com.au/news/how-the-big-four-banks-react-to-fourth-rba-rate-hike
This article is general information only and is not financial, tax or legal advice.